AT THE beginning of the 2016 election cycle, Republican strategists had little reason to question whether the 38 electoral college votes in Texas—the biggest red state in America—would eventually go to their party’s nominee. The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state in a general election was Jimmy Carter, in 1976; four years ago Mitt Romney won the state by a 12-point margin. It has been more than 20 years since Texas voters elected a Democrat to any major state office, and the 2014 mid-term elections offered no evidence that the Republican Party's hegemonic hold on power is weakening. Some Democrats had convinced themselves that shifting demographics meant it had to be, only to be cruelly disappointed. Republicans once again won all the major state-wide contests-by roughly 20 points, rather than the usual 10 or 12.
So many were surprised on September 6th when an online survey by the Washington Post showed Hillary Clinton ahead in the state, leading Donald Trump by one point.
The notion that Democrats have a chance at winning the state is less absurd than it might appear. It would be wrong to dismiss the results of...Continue reading
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