VICTORY this week in the Nevada caucuses, on top of recent triumphs in New Hampshire and South Carolina, make Donald Trump the clear favourite to be the Republican nominee in America’s presidential election. Users of Predictit, a gambling website, collectively rate his chances at about 70%. Although many people think that Mr Trump cannot triumph in November, it is worth remembering that Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, is hampered by several nagging scandals that could conceivably deepen.
So investors need to start thinking about what the economy might look like under a President Trump. This is far from easy, because the candidate gives a good impression of making up policy as he goes along. How seriously is one to take his policy on Chinese trade (declaring the country a currency manipulator and eliminating its “illegal” export subsidies)? Is the plan for a border wall contingent on his improbable promise of getting the Mexicans to pay for it?
And it is not clear whether Mr Trump’s policies would be approved by Congress. A Republican House and Senate would normally follow the lead of their party’s standard-bearer....Continue reading
Source: Business and finance http://ift.tt/1Ld38mY
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