After their conventions, most candidates briefly bounce. But transience does not mean insignificance. The two years that Democrats slid noticeably in the polls after their convention, 1968 and 1972, augured humiliating defeats.
On The Economist’s own analysis of presidential polling from 1952, Democrats usually nab a 3.2% gain in vote share within a week of the convention, while Republicans settle for a 2.3% upswing. The biggest bounce came in 1992 for Bill Clinton, whose boost of 13% was helped by Ross Perot’s withdrawal from the race.
One week after Philadelphia, on a poll of polls, Hillary Clinton saw a steady 2.3% upswing. Donald Trump earned a slightly worse 2.1%. Ms Clinton’s advantage may yet surge; Mr Trump’s has already gone.
Source: United States http://ift.tt/2aCZBxL
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