WHEN the World Cup, now under way in Russia, progresses to the knockout phases of the competition on June 30th attention will focus on the dreaded penalty shoot-out. Forty years ago, if a game was level after 120 minutes, the winner was decided by luck: a simple coin-flip. But in 1978 the rules were changed to create results that, at least in some sense, depend on skill. The question is, how much skill? Since 1982, the first competition in which penalty shoot-outs actually happened, there have been 26 of them—with seven of the 18 teams in the nine pertinent finals having arrived there thanks to success at penalties, and two of the finals themselves having been decided by them.
The format of a shoot-out is simple. Teams take it in turn to try to kick five penalties past the opposing team’s keeper into the goal. If the score is even after five penalties a side then “sudden death” ensues: victory is achieved by a single winning kick that is not successfully replied to. Whether this is...Continue reading
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