2018 will not be any quieter than 2017 on the Korean peninsula

“IT’S not a mere threat,” Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s dictator, announced to the world in his new-year address, “but a reality that I have a nuclear button on the desk in my office. All of the mainland United States is within the range of our nuclear strike.” That is a terrifying thought to most Americans—and one made no less terrifying by Donald Trump’s tweet in response: “I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!”

The Punch-and-Judy posturing would be comical if it did not itself heighten the risk of conflict. In a febrile atmosphere, two thin-skinned leaders might easily misconstrue the other’s intentions, even if neither intended war. Or either might feel face is at stake (Mr Trump, after all, vowed that the North would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons that could hit America).

Mr Trump might also believe that a military strike would have limited consequences. Some of his advisers appear...Continue reading

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