JOURNALISTS often joke that three examples make a trend. Following the votes for Brexit and Donald Trump, a victory by Marine Le Pen of the National Front (FN) in France’s presidential election would complete the anti-globalisation trifecta. She has dominated the polls ever since news broke that François Fillon, her centre-right rival, had paid his wife and children about €1m ($1.05m) over the years for jobs critics call fake. But a deeper analysis shows that Ms Le Pen is more likely to end the streak than to continue it.
After last year’s surprises, many people stopped trusting polls. This is misguided: in both cases, surveys correctly predicted that the race would be tight. If polls in France are similarly reliable, Ms Le Pen’s chances in the first round of the election are excellent. The Economist has aggregated 100 French polls (a technique that is still rare in France, though it is de rigueur in Britain and America). We find that if the first round were held today, Ms Le Pen would carry 26.1% of the vote. Emmanuel Macron and Mr Fillon would trail with 19.7% apiece.
These figures could change, but big shifts are rare. According to...Continue reading
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