OUTSIDERS don’t win presidential nominations any more. Ever since George McGovern, an anti-war insurgent, won the 1972 Democratic primary and then lost 49 of 50 states to Richard Nixon, every major-party nominee has been a former senator, governor or vice-president, and positioned himself closer to his party’s ideological centre than to its fringes. Although early voting states occasionally have flings with firebrands, party elites inevitably use their sway over funding, media and unpledged “superdelegates” to guide voters towards candidates who are acceptable to core interest groups and have a credible chance to win the general election.
The current leaders in the polls for the 2016 Republican nomination are Donald Trump and Ben Carson. However, barring a stunning reversal of precedent, their failure to impress GOP elders—as measured by their paltry fund-raising totals and failure to secure endorsements—all but precludes them from becoming the party’s flag-bearer.
Among the candidates with a hope of surviving this filter, the three thought to have the inside track were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott...Continue reading
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