SINCE the 1976 presidential election Virginia’s gubernatorial politics have been guided by the “Virginia curse”: the party that wins the White House loses the governor’s mansion the following year. The pattern is regarded as a bellwether of shifting national tastes. Only once has it been disturbed. In 2013, Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, was elected governor while Barack Obama was president. This was partly because of defections by Republicans offended by their nominee’s rigid conservatism.
This time round, given the deep distaste for Donald Trump, Democrats in Virginia want to believe the governorship is theirs for the taking on November 7th. But it will not be so simple. While public opinion polls have mostly shown Ralph Northam, a Democrat, leading Ed Gillespie, his Republican rival, the increasingly nasty campaign in Virginia—a state that twice fell to Mr Obama and last year tipped to Hillary Clinton—could ultimately be decided by turnout.
This is because voter participation, which exceeds 70% in...Continue reading
Source: United States http://ift.tt/2zb9SjS
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