PUNDITS and political scientists don’t always agree. When it comes to predicting electoral outcomes, though, both tribes assume that the economy is the most reliable oracle. Numerous studies have found a strong correlation between GDP growth and voting behaviour. Whether or not those in power are responsible for the economy, it has been responsible for whether or not they get re-elected.
A study by Ruth Dassonneville, now at the University of Montreal, and Michael Lewis-Beck of the University of Iowa makes the relationship clear. They examined economic performance and elections in 31 European countries from 1952 to 2013. After controlling for other factors, such as the number of parties in an election, a 1% increase in GDP was associated with an increase of nearly three-quarters of a percentage point in support for the incumbent government.
But things are changing. Fewer voters now identify with particular parties, making elections more volatile. Since 2008, incumbent governments have lost on average seven percentage points of support between elections, up from three points in the 1980s.
You might think that more voters shopping around between...Continue reading
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