IF A week is a long time in politics, then a month is an eternity. In mid-August, Hillary Clinton had opened up a seemingly unassailable polling lead of eight percentage points over Donald Trump. Quantitative forecasting models pegged her odds of victory near 90%, and betting markets approached an 80% probability. Mrs Clinton’s cushion has now all but deflated. By Labour Day, Mr Trump had trimmed her lead in half. And just when the race appeared to be stabilising, the underdog had another growth spurt, picking up about three more points over the past two weeks. Mrs Clinton is now barely clinging to a one-point lead. That puts a man who calls for “unpredictability” in America’s use of nuclear weapons in a near-tie for a presidential election just six weeks away.
Barack Obama held a similarly slim edge in national polling over Mitt Romney on the eve of an election he won comfortably in 2012. But the president had plenty of breathing room in state-specific polls, which turned out to be a better predictor of the outcome. By contrast, Mrs Clinton has lost even more ground in many state polling averages than she has nationally. Iowa, which Mr Obama...Continue reading
Source: United States http://ift.tt/2cJExZe
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