IN THE final sprint towards Taiwan’s presidential elections on January 16th, the outlook for the ruling party, the Kuomintang (KMT), is grim. The party was drubbed in municipal polls in November by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which attracts those who want permanent separation from China. Opinion polls do not suggest that the KMT will win this race either. Now, in desperation, it has dumped its presidential candidate, Hung Hsiu-chu, because she seemed more unpopular than the party itself. Ms Hung’s ill-considered gambit had been to call for even closer ties with China.
At an emergency congress held by the KMT on October 17th, an overwhelming majority of the nearly 900 delegates voted to rescind Ms Hung’s candidacy. Polls had shown she was trailing the DPP’s presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen by over 20 percentage points. The KMT’s chairman, Eric Chu, was chosen to replace her. It may make little difference. There is a good chance that the DPP will win not only the presidency (which it held between 2000 and 2008), but possibly also a majority in the legislature, for which polls will be held at the same time.
A silver lining for China is that Ms Tsai is more moderate in her views on Taiwan’s independence than the last DPP president, Chen Shui-bian (who was jailed for corruption). But the cross-strait bonhomie so cherished...Continue reading
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